Record Harvest Outlook

IMAGE: ABARES September Quarter report shows we’re in for another bumper harvest.

It seems like you can throw anything at farmers and they’ll cope.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)’s latest report Agricultural Commodities: September Quarter forecasts agricultural gross value of production to be $73 billion this harvest.

This is up from last year’s production of $66 billion that had to be revised during last year from an initial estimate of $60 billion because of better seasonal conditions.

Nutrien Ag Agronomist Caitlin McRae said harvest is a wait and see game at the moment for our area, with grain and canola looking promising.

“Everything looks pretty good. We really hope the frost stays away,” she said.

Frost this month and last have been tipped to reduce yield estimates, with industry suggesting some areas in the worst hit areas having a reduction of at least 50% on deliveries on what was expected prior to the frost events.

Ms McRae said it was the main issue for cereal producers currently.

“Frost is a big one at the moment while there’s cold weather and grain canopies are forming,” she said.

Ms McRae said mice have been starting to poke around.

Diligence in containing their breeding during spring is key.

There are also baiting rebates on offer from the State Government for Zinc Phosphide.

While there are these cautions, winter growth is remarkable and unprecedented in these economic times, with plenty of industries in Australia being under strain.

The gross margin at the end of the season should be pretty good, with a bit of a profit this time around compared to last year.

Stock prices are holding well for the whole agricultural sector and commodities.

The return should have farmers smiling, with canola prices at $850/tonne when they were $500/tonne last year.